Bayesian Disaster Update: Italian Prosecutors Focus on Captain and Crew
THE GEARS OF JUSTICE GRIND SLOWLY, AS ITALIAN AUTHORITIES LINE UP TO IGNORE THE DESIGN SHORTFALLS IDENTIFIED IN THE WAKE OF THE CALAMITY THAT TOOK SEVERAL LIVES
Nearly two years ago, in the early morning hours of August 19, 2024, the 180’ yacht Bayesian, went down whilst anchored off the coast of Sicily. The sinking appeared to be the result of a waterspout (a waterborne tornado) running the vessel down as her passengers slept and her crew was on deck battening down against a violent storm that had moved in quickly and unexpectedly. Several lives were lost, when the yacht was knocked down onto her beam ends, flooded rapidly, and foundered in a matter of minutes.
In the intervening twenty months, the sunken yacht was raised, and an “official” report compiled and released by the British Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) — which, in the main, confirmed the central points of our early assessment of the likely cause(s) of the sinking.
Read the last FYBBO update:
Also, during the intervening time since the sinking, The Italian Sea Group (TISG), owner of the builder, Perini Navi, filed a €456 million (approx. $540 million) lawsuit in early 2026 against the captain, two crew members, and the company which owned Bayesian at the time of its sinking, for damaging the brand’s reputation and causing a massive loss in sales through their alleged negligence.
Read the latest Loose Cannon update:
Italian Prosecutors Appear To Rule Out Weather in Bayesian Disaster
As predicted by FYBBO at the time of the sinking, Italian authorities are seeking to pin responsibility on the captain and crew, with no mention of the marginal design decisions that were glossed over by compiling and delivering a “special note of caution” to the initial captain (and maybe the first owner).
And so, a sad saga of monumental hubris and gall all-around continues, whilst the superyacht industry ignores, in silence, the central moral of the story…
Which is that yacht designers, engineers, and builders need to summon the courage to say no to the desires of ultra-wealthy buyers and owners, when meeting those desires is not within the margins of basic safety and fitness for purpose.
— Phil Friedman
Copyright © 2026 by Phil Friedman — All Rights Reserved
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